Another lost Decade in Latin America?

Depending on how you do your math, another decade came to a close or is very close to coming to a close. That always brings about a flurry of analysis of the decade that has passed and regional analysis forms a part of that standard fare of decade roundups.

Many of the articles related to Latin America were focused on another “lost decade”, how ever one wants to interpret that – economic, cultural, political, strategic. The definition of “lost” is so broad that it starts to lose its significance. Also, to be lost means that at some point it must have been found. One could argue that Latin America has never really be found and has been moving from different levels of “lostness” to other levels of “lostness”.

Until then I will wait until I find some articles talking about all those “found” decades in Latin America, whatever that means.

Lots Going On in Latam

I, as well as many who follow the region, have spent the last month or so just trying to keep up on all the news and events unfolding from the Rio Grande to the Tierra del Fuego. From elections to social unrest, crazy levels of violence, to corruption fallout there has been too much to try to even follow. It almost feel Trump like with the news churn from day to day and hour to hour.

With everything going on I am doing what I can to try to make sense of it all. I do not want to get into the ideological mindset of trying to fit everything into one grand theory box. Instead, what I see are many similarities of what is going on in Latam to how thing are currently in the U.S.

Government corruption at levels not before imagined …..Yep

A president running roughshod over established political and social norms…..You bet

A polarized public…..Sure thing

Un Popular Government from the Executive through the Legislative…..Definitely

Middle class feeling squeezed…..All signs point to Yes

What is missing is any type of large scale mobilization that really confronts the issues that the country is facing. Maybe, the U.S. is waiting until the next election in 2020, but I even have my doubts about that shaking this country loose.

 

 

Tourism Turns Troublesome

People like to see things and experience newness. Traveling to a different country and seeing something that for many was once only accessible via tv and before that books. As this article points out, tourism is booming and that is becoming a problem. Some of the world’s most popular sites are completely overrun with camera toting and cell phone selfie grabbing throngs of all ages. Mount Everest can now have longer lines that Best Buy on Black Friday.

Having worked in tourism for a number of years in Peru and still follow the industry closely, I can speak to this first hand. When I was first in Peru in the early 2000s, the remnants of Peru’s Shining Path rebellion was finally starting to fade and visitors to Cusco and Machu Picchu were starting to dramatically increase. What started then has not shown signs of slowing.

Visitors to Machu Picchu went from just over 500k to over 1.5 million in just over a decade. This has taken place even as the cost and complexity (tickets, reservations, permits, etc.) to visit one of the world’s most famous destinations has increased.

As the article points out, congestion pricing is a way to go to help alleviate the stress the world tourism boom is placing on these world wonders. However, as is the case with Machu Picchu, the market is doing what it can to tame some of the demand. Increasing costs and regulating the number of visitors is one way to handle this surge but one need to be wary as many will say that these world wonders are for all to enjoy and should not become only accessible by the well to do.

Venezuela……How Much Longer?

A recent New York Times editorial, brings to light the current state of affairs in Venezuela and that state of affairs is dire. Regardless of one’s political leanings, it has become apparent that things in Venezuela cannot continue down this path for much longer.

There were a couple of things in the editorial that really jumped out at me. One was the constant referencing of Mr. Chavez. It seems to me that political parties that continue to bring up what they consider their glory days – the 14 years when Mr. Chavaz governed in Caracas or the Ronald Reagan years for the US Republican Party – tend to be out of touch with their population and quickly lose their appeal to any one outside of their fiercely loyal bases.  Ghosts do not govern.

The second that caught my eye was the quote about being marked like cattle when waiting in line at the supermarket. This immediately brings to mind the lines in the former Soviet Union for basic consumer staples like bread and sugar. People waiting in line have plenty of time to think and a thinking populace can be a dangerous thing for any government let alone a government that is struggling to maintain control.

Maduro managed to tread water for a while – on the wave of continued support for Chavez – but now is is starting to appear that he is a swimmer starting to struggle and the shore is a long way away. I expect Venezuela to continue to makes its way on the front page of news stories throughout the remainder of the year. Let us just hope that they news starts to trend positive.